The government hasn’t made a decision on when the planned vote will take place, though it may happen “before the summer,” Howlin said in an interview in Singapore today. Ireland said last month it will hold a referendum on the fiscal compact after receiving advice from the attorney general.
“This is not like other treaties, other treaties required unanimity, so it’s a once-off selection for people to determine if they want to be part of this pact or not,” Howlin said. “The train is leaving the station and it’s just a matter of determining how many countries want to be on board.”
In contrast to two previous Irish referendums on European policies, losing this one wouldn’t sink the treaty, which requires support from just 12 of the 17 euro-area countries to come into effect. Still, the government, which plans to exit an international bailout at the end of 2013, won’t be able to access the region’s permanent aid fund if it doesn’t pass the vote.
Ireland sought a 67.5 billion-euro ($89 billion) rescue from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union in 2010 after the collapse of the country’s property boom pushed the state to the brink of bankruptcy. Two newspaper polls published this month showed that about 60 percent of the Irish public, who expressed a preference, will vote for the referendum.
Public Support
“I think there will be a great deal of public support for it because it is an important part of our trajectory for an orderly exit from the support package which we’re on from the EU-IMF,” Howlin said. It will also “ensure that when we return to the markets at the end of next year, there is that insurance there of access to the European Stability Mechanism,” he said.
The Irish government is seeking support from Europe to reduce the cost of bailing out its banks even as it prepares to vote on the European measures to impose budget discipline. Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said March 15 that the government hasn’t ruled out getting an agreed delay this month on a 3.1 billion-euro cash payment on promissory notes used to bail out the former Anglo Irish Bank Corp (ANGL).
‘Completely Separate’
“We see this as two completely separate and distinct issues,” Howlin said. “The stability treaty will stand or fall on its own merits and we are advocating people to support it on the basis that it is necessary for Ireland, and the euro zone and our common currency.”
Ireland’s Finance Ministry said March 15 that the government is “on track” to emerge from its bailout and return to international markets for funding next year, after former European Central Bank Executive Board Member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in the Financial Times that the country may need a further 80 billion euros of aid.
“We don’t foresee that we will need any second bailout and talk of that, bluntly, is unhelpful,” Howlin said today. Irish banks are also well-capitalized and probably won’t need a further injection of funds this year, he said.
[ed. They don't need to hold a second referendum on the FU deal if they lose because they only need 12 out of 17 members voting positively on it in their parliaments to make it binding - oh wait, did people think they were going to give up that easy?...]
